Due diligence

Due diligence, hard work, discipline combine with patience and consistency and the realization of the "right type of thinking" can lead us to achieve a result with a very high probability. Beyond that, it is all randomness: either by taking high, enormous and unconscious risks, or by being extraordinarily lucky. Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance

Courtesy of Aaron Bornstein 07/10/05

Courtesy of Aaron Bornstein 07/10/05

An engineer, a mathematician, and a physicist went to the races one Saturday and laid their money down. Commiserating in the bar after the race, the engineer says, "I don't understand why I lost all my money. I measured all the horses and calculated their strength and mechanical advantage and figured out how fast they could run..."

The physicist interrupted him: "...but you didn't take individual variations into account. I did a statistical analysis of their previous performances and bet on the horses with the highest probability of winning..."

"...so if you're so hot why are you broke?" asked the engineer. But before the argument can grow, the mathematician takes out his pipe and they get a glimpse of his well-fattened wallet. Obviously here was a man who knows something about horses. They both demanded to know his secret.

"Well," he says, between puffs on the pipe, "first I approximated all the horses as identical spheres..."

The sun, the moon, and the truth cannot be long hidden.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

"We see the winners and try to "learn" from them, while forgetting the huge number of losers." Nassim Nicholas Taleb


"Human beings tend to view the world as more explainable than it really is. So they look for explanations even when there are none." Nassim Nicholas Taleb


"We almost always ignore the fact that, for one success story, there are many failures. But we seldom hear about the failures (just like we never hear about the many theories that didn't fit the data). So it's all a game of numbers: out of 10,000 traders, a few are statistically bound to be successful, even if they are nothing more than lucky idiots. The fact that they succeeded does not mean anything. It doesn't mean that they are bad traders, but it doesn't mean that they are good traders either, because on average somebody had to succeed." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Citation by Larry Foley on 19th August 2010

"If you chasing losses it's not wise to bet. that is my opinion. my selections are there for everyone to see and make your own judgement. no tips here just form." Larry Foley on 19th August 2010

Thank You Dale Carnegie for this quote

Thank You Dale Carnegie for this quote “When dealing with people, remember I am not dealing with creatures of logic, but creatures of emotion.”

CLIFFORD IAN BROWN

"Racing can be a funny game and your luck can turn as I’m only too well aware of.” CLIFFORD IAN BROWN